The reason a bounce will be violent

I can't predict when it will happen, but I do think that when it does, it will be stunning, sharp and solid. Prior to that, there will be basing action, testing of support and retracing to prior lows. An important factor is that the lows are tested on low volume and hold. I think a close for multiple days above 1280 will be the harbinger of things to come (note that I'm not saying this is THE bottom for the bear market. We have a long long way to fall in the 1 yr timeframe. This is a forecast in the range of 2 weeks to 2 months timeframe). Now, the reason why I think equities will move up nicely are

• The usual ones: A negativity bubble, massive short interest, news media screaming armageddon, investment forums crowded with doomsdayers
  
• Long only mutual funds: This is the way most funds are positioned, especially of course the index funds which draw a constant stream of investment money.
  
• Takeovers of US corporations, buying of US property by foreign entities (throw in some ideas of takeover targets)
  
• Sentiment shift due to the olympic games and a positive reaction to the potential US election outcome
• Fed and treasury guarentees, bailouts, establishment of a highly liquid covered bond market