Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Upper bound

I am getting more and more concerned about the market action! Apple had a good earnings report so we should see more upside tomorrow. Also, I think Obama will announce some plans this weekend which could give a step to the market. However, from many of my readings, I think we are going to see a max upside to around 890 on S&P, or about 31 on ^BKX (the banking index). The situation is very dire! I think there is going to be a downgrade of UK's rating and within a few months, we will be seeing the American carmakers going under.

I may sound uber bearish, but that's the way I see things unfolding. Intel announced 6000 layoffs and plant closings...Intel is not a company that scales back severely in a downturn and if this economy has them scared and forecasting quarterly losses, my concern only gets amplified. GE may see its rating downgraded and some European banks like RBS, Barclays, etc. are going to start being nationalized. Will we see Citi or Bank of America also nationalized before this is over?

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