The future of the cellphone

A recent article in the Nytimes asks "Can the cellphone industry keep growing?", and kind of leans towards the answer to this question being a no. I disagree. 

Of course, from a pure subscriber growth perspective, unless the world's citizens suddenly decide to make more babies the growth rate will slow down. Apparently, 4 of the 6 billion people already have cellular service. Data is the next big thing for sure, but with data plans costing about 20 bucks a month, I for one would surely not jump for it. 

However, the point to note is that the data plans offered today are over the 3G cellular networks which are inherently more costly especially since they piggyback on the voice networks. Soon, we will see Wimax and LTE being deployed (the pace may be slower due to the economic malaise). We will see almost everything go wireless and be connected to one another wirelessly. Many more forms of entertainment will become interactive instead of passive. 

To embellish my argument, I point you to this article on news.com. It's about a new smartphone from Toshiba that uses the Snapdragon platform from Qualcomm. Check out the specs and be amazed!!! This is of course at the top end of the market. However, cellphone costs are going to keep dropping. Android is an open source OS, hence cost to license = 0 $. Many more companies are jumping into the smartphone space from Dell in the US to Kogan in Australia (note that unfortunately they specced the phone incorrectly and had to postpone its launch). 

I am just getting into the smartphone market but since I don't have to have one, I am at the low end with the Samsung Eternity which does not require a data plan and is available for a mere 50 bucks from Amazon with a 2 year contract. Now I will almost certainly download some games at the least, apart from using the net when necessary.

I hope I have stated my case succintly. I see Apple as THE best positioned company in the US market for integrating the phone, laptop and the TV. I'm just waiting for their next products, not to purchase but to get a feel for where we go from here.

Feb 5th 9:15am: Here's more evidence...the softie also looks like it's going to launch a new phone. Of course Microsoft is not pleased at all the app development going on around Apple's Iphone and wants a toe into the market. Probably with an aquisition (Palm?) it should be better positioned to compete in the space.