Thursday, April 2, 2009

Data showing we are way way overbought

Wow. That was quite an impressive rally. However, at this juncture, although many people think we are headed to 875 on S&P, I would like to submit my thought that we are due for a good correction. A poor jobs report will certainly counter the good after hours RIMM news. And IBM may finally make their Sun takeover public in the AM tomorrow. However, here are some charts that should make you very concerned. Almost every time things have aligned up this way, the markets have fallen.


The above graph is the number of stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages respectively. The 50 day moving average number shows a more short term reading. As you can see, almost 80% of stocks are above their 59 DMA. The last few times that happened, we have seen selloffs and this number has dropped way down to under 30.


The above is a graph of the CBOE options put/call ratio. For those who know what that means, very good. Someone in need of an explanation, please comment. The graph is showing that we are as overbought as we were in May 2008. Everyone knows what came soon after. The blue and red lines are the 50 day and 20 day moving average respectively, both of which are similar to that time in May 08.

Tomorrow is the jobs report which will essentially give us direction, but if it is a bad one, better watch out coz the markets want to tank.


No comments: