Slick oil or oil slick?

I've been following oil and it looks like the price is finally getting out of the contango it has been in for the last few weeks thereby reducing the incentive to hoard the commodity. For futures prices, see
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3028.html?category=Energy&subcategory=Petroleum&contract=Crude%252520Light%252520Oil%252520Comp.%252520-%252520nymex&catandsubcat=Energy%257CPetroleum&contractset=Crude%252520Light%252520Oil%252520Comp.%252520-%252520nymex

A couple of other things that can break the oil market are
- US inventories: The demand side is equally important as the supply, and from what I see, it should be getting weaker. Now when the hell will that show up in inventories? Tomorrow??
- US dollar rising since 10 yr yields are now approaching 4+ %: There are very important levels in the 10 yr yield at around 4.06%. A rise above that, and we should start seeing some real $ strength as money flows to capture that yield.

However, I don't think a fall below 100 will happen anytime soon. It's true folks...the demand has been really strong from Asian countries and the Fed is flooding the system with $$. But $200 oil within this year? I think not!!

NOTE: Be very concerned. 130 oil sucks but even 110 oil is a significant tax on the consumer! So expect to start seeing real weakness in the consumer side of the economy sometime later this year. I hate to be a bear but that's the way I see it right now.