Thursday, May 8, 2008

When will oil finally cool down?

I just can't believe the run crude oil has had in the last few weeks. Granted that 70 to 100 had its reasons but this latest push is simply nuts.

The one indicator to watch in my view is the dollar index. Notice it broke above it 50dma and is now consolidating. When it resumes its next run, which i think is up, it should quickly move to about 76 and that should atleast pause the oil run short term. Another thing to watch is a tightening of margin limits for speculators that is surely in the cards.

Further down the line, it's going to be supply demand fundamentals doing their work. Recession is going to reduce demand, prices themselves are going to eat into demand, more investment will come in alternate sources of energy.

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