Bouncing checks to bouncing banks

Time and time again, I have had it proven to me that picking bottoms is never a good idea. And the contrarian at heart that I am, I refuse to give up. So I thought a couple of days ago we would see a ^BKX bounce back to 75. Nope. (I lost decent money on this trade and hence the bouncing check reference).

But at some point, things get so oversold that calling a short term bounce (given no extraneous black swan factors) is a safe bet. Consider this...the banking index is challenging lows going all the way back to 1999! Its RSI shows it's way oversold and it's at the bottom of the Bollinger Band! And then consider this Minyanville article (which also btw was early). So taking all this into account, I would think that a bounce back to test the underbelly of that 75 line is a strong possibility.