Wednesday, June 4, 2008

A near term scenario

A scenario I see unfolding over the next week (until next turnaround Tuesday) is that we could get a great shift out of commodities into tech! The VXN (Nasdaq 100 volatility index) seems to have hit the top end of its recent downtrending channel. Monday is iPhone 3G day. If the job report on Friday comes out good, we could see the $ rise and crude pull back violently and that money move into the tech arena...maybe taking the NAS even upto that 2600 or so level in a short span! Moreover, banks look set for atleast a small bounce...BKX back upto 75? (Note: I really think IBN/HDB are overdue for a good bounce anytime now).

From there though I think we will drop, and drop hard! See....hard for me to get too optimistic :)

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