Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Define ViXeN

Google search define: vixen
  • a malicious woman with a fierce temper
  • a female fox
We have an analogue in the financial world too! Can you guess? It is
^VXN or ^VIX depending on your taste :)

I just wanted to present a recent graph of the VXN and explain what it means.

See the recent spike and compare it to prior spikes. Does it tell you anything? Now you may wonder why volatility is a good measure of fear in the system. I mean, even if the market is jumping upwards in leaps and bounds, it should be volatile...right? But essentially, volatility represents risk in the pricing of options and other derivative contracts. So a higher volatility essentially means that the sellers of these contracts expect large price moves to occur in the near future. At market tops however, what sets in is complacency and not volatility..funny eh (reminds of an obese fat man living life large without worrying of the future risk he's creating for himself). So there. A volatility spike either ways means that we are most likely at a turning point in the markets when there is immense fear or complacency in the financial system.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

:)funny. never made the connection.