Monday, October 27, 2008

Intl stock markets vs US markets

Of late, international stocks have been falling more rapidly than US stocks. There are a couple of reasons for this.
- Redemptions from hedge funds, US mutual funds investing in intl stocks. Note that the dollar has appreciated very significantly in the near past. This is of course both the cause and the effect for investors pulling cash out of other currencies, markets and commodities.
- US equities stared off with lower P/E's at the high so have less to fall
- Since the rest of the world especially China was a big manufacturer of goods destined to the US, there is significant overinvestment in capital expenditures. Also, commodity producing countries like Brazil, Australia and Russia have been hammered.
- In India, the monetary policy is still quite restrictive thus encouraging saving. Inflation has also not subsided enough but it should in the near future. I think Indian stocks represent quite an opportunity at 8000 sensex levels.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

What about oil and oil stocks in the US? Given that new oil being explored costs 80-90 bucks a barrel to extract and refine... isnt it a matter of time before oil goes back up - is this an opportunity?