Sunday, January 25, 2009

Idea factory: Multiple streaming cameras at functions

I was thinking from the perspective of the wedding ceremony and reception...While there will definitely be a photographer
- I'd like people who could not physicall make it also be able to view
- Have multiple cameras and be able to view all the feeds at the same time (like say in a casino monitoring room).

It should be quite feasible since internet cameras can also be purshased for a price. However my idea is to do it with laptops having webcams stationed at vantage points, all of which are streaming their clips over the net. I wonder if there is an app that allows you to view multiple streaming clips simultaneously though.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Upper bound

I am getting more and more concerned about the market action! Apple had a good earnings report so we should see more upside tomorrow. Also, I think Obama will announce some plans this weekend which could give a step to the market. However, from many of my readings, I think we are going to see a max upside to around 890 on S&P, or about 31 on ^BKX (the banking index). The situation is very dire! I think there is going to be a downgrade of UK's rating and within a few months, we will be seeing the American carmakers going under.

I may sound uber bearish, but that's the way I see things unfolding. Intel announced 6000 layoffs and plant closings...Intel is not a company that scales back severely in a downturn and if this economy has them scared and forecasting quarterly losses, my concern only gets amplified. GE may see its rating downgraded and some European banks like RBS, Barclays, etc. are going to start being nationalized. Will we see Citi or Bank of America also nationalized before this is over?

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Watch the price action of Intel stock to see where the broader market goes

For the second time in as many months, Intel downgraded their sales and profit expectations for the quarter just ended. It was a whole $2B less than their initial projections from October of last year. Just imagine that! In 3 months, they have had to cut their sales projection by 20%!

Now, why do I think Intel is a bellwether stock? Shouldn't GE play that role, it being a much more diversified company? The reason why I think GE stock does not show how the real economy is doing is because of its large dependence on the performance of their finance operations. This unit single handedly screwed GE's March quarter (of last year).

INTC dropped 6% today after their latest warning, but that takes the stock price back to where it was just a week ago. To me, that makes me think that all the bad news for Intel is factored into the stock price. As it sits right now, it has a very compelling valuation. This is also around the lowest price it was at post the dot com bubble. So have a hawk's eye on the price movement of Intel..with a strong balance sheet and sitting near the top of its industry, if Intel can't pull it off, no one can.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Technical analysis of S&P 500

Just wanted to throw this out to see if it holds and water (in terms of predictive power), and also educate the masses :)

Technical analysis is a highly debated topic. The way I see it is that if most of the traders believe in it, it makes sense to follow the logic of the crowd (see what happened to the mavericks ;))

S&P is right now at about 879. Looking at the 3 month chart, notice the trend line from Nov 21st low (741) to the Dec 5th low (818). Generally, on the downside, stocks will go back and test either moving averages or trendlines. So based on this, the current trendline is near 850. Interestingly, the 20 day moving average is at 857.

Now there something a lot of technicians love called the head and shoulders patters. What does it look like? Well, head and shoulders!! A bigger peak with two smaller peaks at either side. Now consider and inverse head and shoulders pattern...a lower low bounded by two higher lows. The Nov 21st value at 741 can be thought of as the inverse head and the left side higher low is the Oct 27th value at 852. So if this theory is to hold, then 852 should be the max downside.

Now, the fun part is the reaction, or the "sentimental" low which stands at 840. This has been a value we've tested a number of time both on the downside and the upside. Below this, there will be a number of stop losses that will trigger which can pull the index down pretty sharply. 

So the way I see it, we should have a low between 840 to 850 before moving into gear for a year-end rally.

I'll try to post some pictures later to illistrate all of this. For now, hope this link to the yahoo finance technical analysis chart works.