The end of the beginning and the beginning of the end

What an eye catching phrase! I picked it from this article in the Independent. In it the author posits many bear case scenarios for banks as they try to raise capital to shore up liquidity. If right now is the end of the beginning, I think (post-Gustav) we are set for a relief rally...that would be something! But alas, it would be a head-fake and things should begin to unravel soon after. When will it all end? I do think the last bailout will be the fourth option (from the Independent article), direct state intervention to support lending! Levels to watch for upside bear market rally targets..1350 on SnP, 12250 on Dow, 75 on the BKX. And the breakdown..I think it should take us to 1100 or even a little below (on SnP). Ain't I papa bear :)

A Phelps like comeback for gold

If this article in TOI is to be believed, Indian gold demand has been surging recently. It says demand increased 10 fold from the start of the year which is a little hard to believe but I don't know the numbers that well anyways. However, I think if it's seasonal factors that affect demand, wouldn't there be an arbitrage opportunity in storing gold using a low interest rate currency (after hedging for some other price movements like exchange rate, interest rates, etc.) and selling it in peak season?

Coming back to my thoughts on inflation in India running at a 12% clip and the POG, I'm beginning to wonder if the gold price can decouple from the price of oil and the US $ and continue to hold steady or rise in spite of a fall in those. Well, I'm going to sell some longs into strength at the 50dma and maybe let the rest ride (or set a downside stop).

Business idea: Mobile search coupons

You're in a neighborhood and looking for a Thai restaurant, you run a google search by distance from current location (known via gps) and it brings up a list of restaurants - and you have to make a choice. You like one that's a little farther away but you're not sure. Now how about if the restaurant had a 10% coupon redeemable within the next 1 hour? Wouldn't that affect your decision? So the business idea is essentially being the provider that interfaces between these local businesses and the customer. Think about it,and get back to me if interested in delving deeper into this. The reason i need help is that I have ideas but ideas are a dime a dozen - I don't have good follow through. I know this weakness and hence want to compensate for it by teaming up.

An idea from my bike+VTA commute

I got an idea from personal experience and doing some reading. How about a mix of personal and public transportation? I rode my bike to the train station, got on it with the bike, got off and biked to the destination. So why not have some cheap electric bikes to do the last legs, and then have trains for the long haul. You can either buy your own bike and pay more for carrying it on, or there can be a ride-share service at each station. Sounds like a great idea to me. I wonder how the economics of something like this would work. Probably have to start seeing what an electric bike can/cannot do - you'd need approx. 5 miles of charge and be able to recharge at home and at the station. Whatsay?